Research Paper
Pricing Prediction Markets
Wang Transform decomposition across 291,309 contracts on 6 platforms. Pooled λ = 0.183.
Open Source
oracle3
Autonomous prediction market trading agent. 8 arbitrage + 2 model-driven strategies across Kalshi, Polymarket & Solana.
Projects
clawdfolio
Portfolio analytics on PyPI. Fama–French, GARCH, covered call optimization (83% win rate).
Market Bubble Index
7-indicator composite with Lasso / Bayesian / EVT ensemble. AUC 0.802 for drawdown detection.
vol-regime-toolkit
Volatility regime analysis for systematic options selling. IV percentile, GARCH, vol risk premium scanner.
vibeathon
50 LLM agents autonomously run a hackathon — team formation, brainstorming, judging. HackIllinois 2026.
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